Science Isn’t Broken It’s just a hell of a lot harder than we give it credit for.

The Details FiveThirtyEight’s Senate, House and gubernatorial models are mostly unchanged from 2018, so the large majority of the methodological detail below will still apply. There are, however ...

If you’re one of the approximately 320 million Americans who don’t live in New York City, it might seem like its Democratic mayoral primary has gotten an outsized amount of media coverage. But ...

Voting Rights How Majority-Minority Districts Fueled Diversity In Congress And why people of color are winning more seats outside of those districts too.

Longtime readers of FiveThirtyEight are probably familiar with our pollster ratings: letter grades that we assign to pollsters based on their historical accuracy and transparency. Since 2008, we ...

How Much Football Is Even In A Football Broadcast? NFL telecasts include a smaller share of game action than in any other major sport — even MLB.

Societal Distrust Why Being Anti-Science Is Now Part Of Many Rural Americans’ Identity And why that will make communication around the next crisis so much more challenging.

2024 Election Why Trump Is Favored To Win The 2024 Republican Presidential Primary The polls, and history, are on his side.

2024 Republican Primary How Donald Trump’s Unusual Presidential Comeback Could Go History presents three possible paths.

Michael Jordan Faced Better Competition Than LeBron James But that doesn’t settle the GOAT debate.

We first published FiveThirtyEight’s club soccer predictions in January 2017 with six leagues. Since then, we’ve steadily expanded the number of leagues we forecast, added features to our ...

The Real Story Of 2016 What reporters — and lots of data geeks, too — missed about the election, and what they’re still getting wrong.